Greenhouse effect of 1.5°C: What one and a half degrees Celsius means and why it is important
The Earth’s average temperature in 2024 has risen more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.
This is both a physical reality and a symbolic shock. The world is approaching the end of what was thought to be a safe zone for humanity.
Climate is ever changing, of course, and the Earth has experienced both warming and freezing temperatures in the past. And over the 4.5 billion years of Earth’s existence, it has been both much warmer and much colder than it is now. However, even if you put all available global temperature values together in one timeline, you can see that the rate of increase has never been so fast. Experts say the biggest contributor to climate change is the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the temperature record a “climate collapse”. “We must turn off this path to doom and we have no time to lose,” he said in his New Year’s message, calling on countries to cut emissions of greenhouse gases heating the planet in 2025.
A 1.5°C warming would result in the loss of 70-90 per cent of coral reefs, which are already dying. This percentage could be catastrophic for millions of ocean creatures, but in the long term there will be a chance to save ecosystems. If the Earth warms by 2 degrees, 99% of reefs will disappear, causing the extinction of thousands of animal species.
Polar bears and other species of northern animals will have to struggle to survive in unnatural conditions. Studies have shown that with 1.5 degrees Celsius warming, sea levels will rise by 1 meter by 2300. At the same time there is a high risk of destruction of the ice surfaces of Greenland and West Antarctica. If temperatures rise faster, this ice will melt and sea levels will rise by up to 2 meters in 200 years. Millions of people will face annual flooding, many people living in coastal cities will have to consider moving.
In 2015, the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted. It aims to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the rise in global temperatures. Signatory countries pledge to keep the rise in average global temperature well below 2°C and to work to keep the temperature rise within 1.5°C. Kazakhstan signed the Paris Climate Agreement on 2 August 2016 at the UN headquarters in New York.
How the climate is changing in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the planet: our temperature has risen by 0.36°C every 10 years since 1976, while the global average is 0.19°C. Despite this, frosts also occur naturally. The increase of average annual temperatures does not prevent, but sometimes even increases the risk of return frosts, which, of course, has a very negative impact on agriculture. And it is very difficult to adapt to this risk.
Climate change in Kazakhstan is also affected by the fact that the country is located in the centre of the Eurasian continent, is far from the oceans and warms up at a greater rate than the northern hemisphere and the globe as a whole.
Kazakhstanis are already facing the many consequences of climate change: increasing spring floods, frequent earthquakes, livestock losses due to drought and river shallowing.
Agriculture will also face difficulties: land degradation and erosion will make it impossible to grow certain crops, and pastures for animals will be reduced.
The importance of addressing climate change, which is growing every day, makes it essential to pay close attention to greenhouse gas emissions.
Effective carbon risk management and assessment of direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions associated with industrial operations are essential aspects of planning the industrial activities aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and thus slowing down the increase in the Earth’s average temperature.